June 01, 2026
William Liang/Imagn Images
If the Phillies have any chance to be a Wold Series contender, they need Trea Turner to start hitting like the reigning NL batting champion.
The Phillies returned from their West Coast trip with two losses in three games in L.A., but a sweep of the Padres in San Diego before made them 4-2 on the swing, which any MLB team would sign up for in advance.
They are surely a better team since Don Mattingly became manager, and they're squarely in the mix for the National League Wild Card with plenty of baseball left this summer.
But what is their ultimate potential? Their starting pitching is back to elite, and has managed to carry a laboring offense and erratic bullpen on its back.
Can the next 103 games resemble the past 31 to make anyone believe the Phils can be champions?
In these five thoughts, we explore that question and more:
Despite going 6-6 in their past 12 games and losing three of their past four series, the Phillies are 21-10 since they fired Rob Thomson and named Mattingly as interim manager on April 28.
What's that gotten them in the National League East? Not very much.
If you were anticipating an eventual Braves implosion sometime in May, it just didn't happen. The Braves are 20-11 since the Phils fired Topper, so they've only yielded one game to the Phillies in slightly less than five weeks.
The Braves are also expecting two pitchers who were supposed to be in their rotation – Spencer Schwellenbach and Hunter Waldrep – to return sometime this season, with Waldrep, on the mend from surgery to remove loose bodies in the elbow, slightly ahead and about to begin a rehab assignment.
From now until July 4, the Phillies and Braves will each play four series against teams under .500. The Phils' best chance to do any serious damage on Atlanta's first-place lead will come during a 13-game stretch from June 15-28 against NL East opponents (vs. MIA, vs. NYM, @WAS for four games, and @NYM). Of those three teams, the Nats are the only team above .500, but just barely at 31-29.
In that same time frame, the Braves will play six straight home games against the Giants and Brewers before heading west for six games against the Padres and Giants. Perhaps if the Braves slip and the Phils soar, they can whittle down that 9.5-game deficit to 4.0 or 5.0 headed into July and August.
It was just last year that the Tigers blew a 15.5-game lead to the Guardians in the AL Central after July 8, the biggest blown division lead in MLB history, so perhaps impossible is the wrong word.
So let's get back to that 21-10 mark since Mattingly took over. That record extrapolated over 162 games is 109-53, which screams World Series contender.
The reality is, the Phillies aren't going to win 21 of every 31 games they play for the rest of the season. The other reality is that they're still not scoring nearly enough to be taken seriously as contenders.
The Phils have averaged 4.12 runs per game during that 31-game stretch, which would only rank 21st in MLB if that were their season average. Their season average is way worse – 3.9 runs per game, worst in the NL, and better only than the Tigers and Royals.
Even if the Phils were to continue averaging around 4.12 runs per game, they'd still face the most uphill battle to win it all. No MLB team in the past 30 years has won a World Series ranking outside the top 20 in runs, and only five teams in the past 30 years have won the World Series while averaging fewer runs per game than the league average. Here they are:
| Year/Team | R/G | League avg. R/G |
| 2010 Giants | 4.3 (17th) | 4.38 |
| 2006 Cardinals | 4.85 (14th) | 4.86 |
| 2005 White Sox | 4.57 (15th) | 4.59 |
| 2003 Marlins | 4.64 (17th) | 4.73 |
| 1997 Marlins | 4.57 (20th) | 4.77 |
In short, it really doesn't matter how elite their starting rotation is. If the Phillies don't score more runs – way more – they don't stand a chance.
Out west, Mattingly tried to get the season-long slumping Trea Turner going by moving him to second in the batting order, switching him with Kyle Schwarber, who's had past success batting leadoff.
The result was a double whammy, outside a brief power surge for Turner.
In the five games since the switch, Schwarber – the MLB home run leader – is slashing .238/.271/.381, with all three being below his season average, and major drop-offs in on-base percentage (.347 for the season) and slugging percentage (an NL-best .593). Schwarber has homered just once in the five-game experiment, along with just two RBI and one run scored.
Turner clubbed three homers in a two-game span in San Diego but otherwise remains mired in a slump. His .238 batting average from the 2-hole is only marginally better than his .223 for the season, and his .238 on base percentage over the past five games simply stinks and is lower than his .273 average for the season, which also stinks.
It's hard to believe this is the same guy who was last year's NL batting champion, and the switcheroo with Schwarber in the batting order hasn't helped at all.
The hope that Adolis García would somehow have a turnaround season – and career – with the Phillies fades more and more by the day.
García went hitless in 17 at-bats on the West Coast and hasn't had a hit since going 1-for-3 against the Guardians on May 24. He hasn't had a multi-hit game since May 9 and hasn't had a multi-RBI game since April 30. Even backup catcher Rafael Marchán has a multi-RBI game more recently than García.
Those comparing Garcia to last year's dud outfield signing, Max Kepler, are way off – García is actually performing way worse. Here's how they compare through May 31:
| Max Kepler, 2025 | Adolis Garcia, 2026 | |
| BA | .223 | .191 |
| OBP | .312 | .274 |
| SLG | .394 | .295 |
| HR | 5 | 4 |
| RBI | 20 | 20 |
To think that Kepler last year actually batted about 30 points higher than García is right now, and reached base almost 40 percentage points more often, is staggering.
Dave Dombrowski believed a change of scenery and different coaching could get García to return to his two-time All-Star form from the Rangers, or at least something close.
Garcia instead is batting nearly 40 points lower and slugging almost 100 points worse than he did last season in Texas. Garcia is on pace for 17 doubles if he reaches the same number of at-bats that he had last season (547), which would be the fewest of his career by a lot. His previous low was 26, his rookie season.
The Phils can't wait until the trade deadline to make an upgrade, right?
The Phillies made a minor but telling move before Sunday's game, designating right-handed reliever Zach Pop for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster for Max Lazar, who had been rehabbing an oblique strain in the minors. Lazar is back in Triple-A for now, while Chase Shugart remains in the majors.
The DFA of Pop, who was also on a rehab assignment (calf), is a reminder that the team's master plan for a remade bullpen in 2026 hasn't come to fruition. The Phils also traded Matt Strahm in the offseason to the Royals for Jonathan Bowlan, traded with the Diamondbacks to acquire sidearm lefty Kyle Backhus, and selected Zach McCambley from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft.
Let's look at how each one has fared:
| Pitcher | Outcome |
| Zach Pop | DFA (7.1 IP) |
| Zach McCambley | Didn't make 40-man, returned to MIA |
| Kyle Backhus | On IL since 4/27, 4.66 ERA in 9.2 IP |
| Jonathan Bowlan | 4.67 ERA in 17.1 IP |
About the only solace is that Strahm hasn't been much better for the Royals, with a 3.86 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in Kansas City in just 16.1 innings.
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