July 17, 2026
Eric Hartline/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
Aaron Nola's third straight good outing is an encouraging sign for him and the Phillies.
The Phillies came out of the All-Star break ready to reset their mission of overtaking the Braves in the National League East and coming off consecutive series wins against the Reds and Tigers.
But the momentum hit a thud Thursday as they fell 4-1 to the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The bats were quieted by right-hander Christian Scott, who rung up seven strikeouts in 5.2 innings, and Aaron Nola again encountered his typical struggles to keep the ball inside the park, especially when Mets hitters got to see him for the third time.
Both teams are off today before resuming their series Saturday, with Jesús Luzardo scheduled to face Sean Manaea.
Here are some thoughts on the off day before the Phils continue the "second half" of their season:
Before coming out for the seventh on Thursday – a surprising allowance by Don "Captain Hook" Mattingly – Nola had only allowed a solo homer to Francisco Álvarez through 6.0 innings. Nola then surrendered consecutive homers to lead off the seventh – to Brett Baty and Alvarez again – as the Mets extended their lead to 3-0.
Nola exited having allowed three runs on six hits, four walks (one intentional), and six strikeouts. For him, that's encouraging, and makes three straight solid outings for the previously struggling veteran right-hander. Nola allowed two runs on three hits in 5.0 innings in his prior start, and three runs on seven hits in 7.0 innings before that. He has pitched into the seventh inning twice in his last three starts after doing that just once all season.
Over his last three outings, Nola has a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. (Ironically, he is 0-3.) But if the Phillies can get more outings like those from Nola over the second half, they'll be in much better shape to overtake the Braves in the NL East and perhaps pressure the Brewers for the No. 2 seed.
As our Evan Macy wrote, the starting rotation has been very top heavy – Cris Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Luzardo have combined for a 2.78 ERA while the rest have combined for a 6.39 ERA. A reliable Nola would be an even bigger boost in the postseason if he moved into the bullpen and served as a potential high-leverage arm.
Which brings us to thought No. 2...
Let's be clear: Despite having one of the bullpen's better ERAs, Brad Keller was not having a very good season. His 4.02 ERA was almost two full points higher than his 2.07 last year with the Cubs, which led him to score a two-year, $22 million deal from the Phils to be one of their setup arms from the right side.
But Keller is now likely out for the rest of the season – and maybe beyond – with a UCL tear, leaving the Phillies with yet another hole in their toiling pen. Orion Kerkering will be the top righty high-leverage arm, and Jonathan Bowlan will be another, but the Phillies need more dependability.
Many will focus on Gage Wood, last year's first-round pick who is performing well as a starter for Double-A Reading. But the best option until the trade deadline could be Alex McFarlane, who has been flame-throwing at Reading all season from the bullpen, touching 100+ mph, pitching to a 2.12 ERA in 34.0 innings with a 1.14 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 rate.
Alex McFarlane struck out 3 batters across 2.0 innings and earned the save for the @ReadingFightins last night! His fastest pitch came in at 102 mph 🔥 pic.twitter.com/661sSppr8E
— Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) July 5, 2026
Mattingly told reporters Thursday that McFarlane isn't currently an option to replace Keller, but Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the right-hander should be moving up the minor-league chain soon.
“[Alex] McFarlane is expected to be promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the near future, according to two team sources who were not authorized to speak publicly.”
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) July 17, 2026
-@MattGelb https://t.co/5ixhkUYpAB pic.twitter.com/0aNfFNFmab
Dave Dombrowski's two biggest offseason moves were signing Keller and right fielder Adolis Garcia in free agency, and 97 games into the season both are done for the season with injuries.
García was having a terrible season before going down with a torn lat, and as mentioned above, Keller was not nearly as effective this season as he was last season for the Cubs. If Dombrowski doesn't nail the trade deadline, the Phillies won't be going anywhere.
Last year, Dombrowski hit home runs trading for outfielder Harrison Bader and closer Jhoan Duran. This year, he needs a few more deadline dingers to compensate for an unspectacular offseason that did nothing to upgrade the roster.
It could have been an even worse offseason for Dombrowski if the Mets didn't swoop in at the 11th hour and sign free agent Bo Bichette to an awkward three-year, $126 million deal that has opt-outs after 2026 and 2027.
Dombrowski thought he had a deal done for the former Blue Jays infielder to play third base before the Mets stole him away, which led Dombrowski to re-sign J.T. Realmuto and hold onto Alec Bohm.
So far, the Phillies are getting roughly the same lackluster production from Bohm as the Mets are getting from Bichette – but for about $32 million less. Bohm is slashing .213/.275/.350 with 11 homers and 47 RBI while Bichette has produced a .253/.297/.372 slash line with 10 homers and 51 RBI.
Without that albatross of a contract, Dombrowski can upgrade third base at the trade deadline if the opportunity is there, something he wouldn't have been able to do if Bichette had accepted the team's no-opt-outs contract.
What does Derek Hill need to do to earn more playing time?
After making yet another highlight-reel catch against the Tigers, and going 4-for-11 in the series with a homer, three RBI, two runs scored and three stolen bases (all in one game!), the outfielder found himself on the bench against the Mets while struggling rookie Gabriel Rincones Jr. started in right field. Justin Crawford returned to center following a few games off from knee soreness.
The left-handed hitting Rincones Jr. went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, lowering his slash line to .171/.203/.300 in 22 games, with 21 strikeouts in 70 at bats. The right-handed hitting Hill is slashing .327/.352/.538 since coming to the Phillies, although his K rate is higher than that of Rincones. In July, Hill slashing .362/.400/.579 in eight games and has made two spectacular plays on defense.
Hill is also hitting 100 points higher than Rincones against right-handed pitching and his OPS against right-handers (.729) far exceeds Rincones' .511. The lefty-righty platoon doesn't make sense if the left-handed hitter is performing worse against right-handed pitching.
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