May 18, 2026
Sam Navarro/Imagn Images
Aaron Nola has been causing problems this season as he struggles from the mound.
It was just two years ago that Aaron Nola was the Phillies' No. 2 starter.
In 2024, the Phils' longest tenured veteran received Cy Young votes (he got 11th) while posting pretty solid numbers, like his 14-8 record and 3.57 ERA. His WAR that year was actually higher than both Cris Sánchez's and Ranger Suárez's.
That season was actually his first on the monster seven year, $172 million deal he signed back in 2023, a deal that looked questionable at the time and looks even worse now.
The knock against Nola during his most successful years in Philly is that he was prone to having blow-up innings, or even blow-up games. But he would always figure it out and pitch well again.
Over his last two seasons — 2025 (an injury-shortened campaign) and through 2026, Nola has been even more inconsistent and he's becoming entirely dependent on the Phillies' resurgent offense to win. His most recent start, for example, was a Phillies victory back on Friday in Pittsburgh. But he allowed six runs before the end of the fourth inning and the offense had to stage an epic extra-innings comeback to dig out of that 6-0 deficit.
Will Nola find his success again?
| Timeframe | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
| 2015-2024 | 104-79 | 3.70 | 1.137 |
| 2025-2026 | 7-13 | 5.98 | 1.414 |
His numbers, as are plain to see above, have been brutal over the 26 combined starts he's had over the last two campaigns so far.
So what can the Phillies do?
Really, this is probably the only thing they can do immediately. With rookie Andrew Painter, who is also struggling, there are more ways to address the issue. Painter is still young, has minor league options, and if the Phillies decide they can't continue to send him to the mound to learn every five games, he can go to Triple-A. It's happened to a lot of very good pitchers in the majors, including Hall of Famer Roy Halladay, who was demoted when he was 23 and in his third season and emerged a year later as one of the best pitchers in baseball and never looked back.
But Nola is 32, days away from turning 33. He's under contract for the foreseeable future and he has no minor league options to speak of. Nola has had funks before and has worked through them. Last year, Nola was sidelined for the majority of the season, from mid-May through August, with an ankle injury and later a ribcage injury. He returned and worked through some struggles before throwing an eight-inning gem on September 26, striking out nine and allowing just one run.
In his nine starts so far 2026, Nola has three games with five or more runs allowed and six with three or less. Perhaps the Phillies can just swallow one out of every three starts being a total stinker?
This happens a lot more in the NFL but it does pop up in baseball quite a bit, specifically with pitchers. How often do you see a relief pitcher totally shelled in back to back appearances who then gets placed on the IR with some kind of minor soft tissue issue?
If Nola struggles further — three of his last five outings have been in the really bad category — perhaps being put on the shelf for two weeks might be an avenue for the Phillies to help him reset and figure things out. It worked with Alec Bohm, on a smaller scale, as the beleaguered third baseman sat for a few games last week to clear his head. That move from manager Don Mattingly seems to have worked. Maybe Nola needs to be shelved for a bit too?
Nola is under contract through 2030 and will be paid more than $24 million per season. Any trade would yield little in return, if he's tradable at all. But trading Nola would also expose the Phillies' lack of depth at starting pitcher.
With the completely failed Taijuan Walker signing — which the team totally surrendered on despite owing the veteran hurler $18 million this season — the Phillies knew they had Zack Wheeler (who has been mowing down hitters) waiting in the wings to return. The stable is pretty empty now with possible in-house replacements for Nola or for Painter.
Here are the best starting pitching options in the minors right now:
| Pitcher | Age, exp | 2026 MiLB stats |
| Alan Rangal | 28, 2 games | 2.74 ERA, 42.2 IP |
| Jean Cabrera | 24, none | 8.74 ERA in 34 IP |
| Bryse Wilson | 28, 163 games | 8.20 ERA in 37.1 IP |
| Tucker Davidson | 30, 56 games | 5.64 ERA in 30.1 IP |
| Collin Gillispie | 28, 9 games | 3.63 ERA in 17.1 IP |
It sort of goes on like that. In a pinch, there is some MLB starting experience. But obviously there's no swing arm, or sixth starter the Phillies can be confident in for extended periods of time. Nobody in the current bullpen is able to move to start either — like Matt Strahm in the past.
And what about Gage Wood or some of the other top pitching prospects? Anyone who isn't above Double-A is probably not ready for the jump. And additionally, Wood is a player who needs to pitch regularly. He's not a guy the team would waste a minor league option on for one or two spot starts.
Moving on from either Nola or Painter would create a massive need for a starting pitcher on the open market, which is an expensive thing to need in the middle of a season.
It's still May, and Philadelphia's front office is likely committed to seeing if Nola can right the ship over the next few months. His track record and massive contract has earned him a pretty long leash. But if he's still got an ERA over 5 come July or August, the Phillies might have no choice.
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