October 30, 2026
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels was held to 31 riushing yards against the Eagles in the season opener, a big reason the Birds won.
When we last saw the Eagles, they were getting steamrolled – surprisingly – by the Dallas Cowboys, who entered Monday night's showdown at the Linc as one of the NFL's worst rushing offenses.
When we'll next see the Eagles, they'll be at Northwest Stadium, home of the Commanders, who have a top-10 rushing offense.
The ol' 1+1=2 theory would suggest that if the Eagles can't stop a bad Cowboys running game they'll stand no chance against the Commanders, who average about 125 yards per game on the ground.
But Washington's run game stats are somewhat deceiving.
None of their three active running backs – Richaad White, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols – is averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry. Combined, they are averaging 3.9 yards per carry, despite the Commanders averaging 4.55 yards per rush as a team.
It's not Washington's conventional run game that poses the biggest threat to their opponents each week; quarterback Jayden Daniels' scrambling and designed runs are far more prolific and threatening than any Commanders ball carrier who takes the handoff from Daniels.
Daniels, who hasn't won a game since last season, is the team's second-leading rusher. His 8.5 yards per run is highest among any QB with at least 4 carries. It's not just that he's fast, he's among the league's most elusive scramblers, even more than Buffalo's MVP Josh Allen.
Per NFL Pro, Daniels has the NFL's highest rushing yards over expectation at +86, and his 212 scrambling yards are the NFL's second-most, but Daniels has played four games. He is averaging more than 11 yards per scramble, so basically every time he takes off, the Commanders get a first down.
The Eagles have already felt the sting of Daniels' scrambling ability, going back to the third-year QB's rookie season, when he averaged 6.2 yards per run on 16 carries in two games, with three runs of at least 10 yards.
In Week 5 against the Giants, before botching the final snap in overtime of a tie game, Daniels ran for TDs of 38 and 26 yards. Both were improv scrambles, not designed play calls, and both times he was able to outrun a significant portion of the defense to find the end zone.
The following week, on Monday night against the 49ers, Daniels only ran four times for 10 yards. The result? The Commanders rushed for a total of 53 yards and averaged 3.1 yards per carry in another loss.
The Commanders know they're deficient in explosive weapons with WR Terry McLaurin out for the rest of the season and with leading rusher Jacory Croskey-Merritt also on injured reserve.
This year, under new OC David Blough, they have tapped into the multiple tight end personnel groupings craze sweeping the league. They have use three tight ends (13 personnel) at a 12-percent rate, ninth-highest in the NFL. But the extra beef up front hasn't really worked for their run game; they average just 3.4 yards per carry from 13 personnel.
Here's how that compares to their other groupings:
| Personnel Group | Yds/Carry |
| 11 | 5.1 |
| 12 | 4.4 |
| 13 | 3.4 |
The Commanders are in 12 or 13 personnel combined as much as they are in 11 personnel, but clearly have their best rushing success from three-wide formations. Their 5.1 YPC from 11 personnel is much higher than the league average (4.7). With McLaurin now out, though, being thin at wide receiver could mean fewer snaps with three wideouts.
The Eagles have been strangely loose in run defense all season. Their defense's failure to even get off the bus Monday night against the Cowboys, who rushed for more than 200 yards, dropped them to 27th overall in run defense.
The big number for the Eagles on Sunday is 125 – Washington's per-game rushing average in 2026. Since Vic Fangio became defensive coordinator, the Eagles are 5-10 in games when they've allowed at least 125 rushing yards.
If the Commanders hit their season average or higher, chances are the Eagles will lose. And if the Commanders can get 125 yards on the ground, it'll probably mean that Daniels broke their backs.
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