November 02, 2026
Michael Tanenbaum/For PhillyVoice
One day before Election Day, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has a large lead in his bid for reelection against Republican challenger Stacy Garrity.
The midterm elections are one day away, and the balances of power in Congress and the Pennsylvania legislature are at stake.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has a large lead in his reelection bid against his Republican challenger, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Democrats in Pennsylvania see an opportunity to win the state Senate and hold the state House, which could give them full control of the state government for the first time in decades.
MORE: How data centers became a flashpoint in the Shapiro-Garrity race for Pa. governor
In Washington, Republicans are expected to lose control of the House, and Democrats could walk away with the control of the Senate, too.
Plus, the outcomes of several elections could impact the 2028 presidential race.
Here's a look at the polls show heading into Election Day on Tuesday.
Shapiro holds a significant lead over Garrity. The latest poll, from Research Co., shows him 25 points ahead, receiving 59% of expected votes compared to Garrity's 34%. Other polls since Oct. 1 place Shapiro ahead by 25 to 30 points, per the New York Times.
Garrity has raised significantly less campaign funding than Shapiro, but she recently got an influx of cash from the skill games industry. In the latest fundraising period, she raised at least $4.5 million from companies and lobbying groups affiliated with skill games, including the Pennsylvania Amusement and Music Machine Association and Pinnacle Vending, WHYY reported. Those donations made up the bulk of her campaign funding.
Shapiro has sought to legalize the games and tax them at a 52% rate whereas Garrity has called for taxing them at a flat $500 monthly rate. The games commonly had been found in gas stations and convenience stores, but the state Supreme Court defined them as slot machines earlier this year and gave the state legislature until Oct. 13 to amend state gaming laws to reflect the change. Lawmakers missed that deadline.
Throughout her campaign, Garrity has struggled to keep pace with Shapiro, who is widely expected to consider a presidential campaign in 2028. In September, she was reportedly behind Shapiro in polls, fundraising and name recognition — a poll published by the Inquirer found that 26% of Republicans and 33% of voters overall hadn't even heard of her.
Shapiro has not formally announced a presidential run, but a big win in Pennsylvania — a presidential battleground state — would continue his momentum toward a run.
In New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Cory Booker is running for a third term for U.S. Senate. He's expected to easily beat Republican Justin Murphy. But politicos say that it's not whether Booker wins, but by how much, that matters. A strong win could be a good jumping off point for a 2028 presidential run, NJ.com reported.
In Pennsylvania, neither Democrat John Fetterman nor Republican Dave McCormick are up for re-election this cycle.
As of Tuesday morning, Democrats led races in the seven states that are likely to determine which party controls the Senate, though the latest polling results in Iowa are within the margin for error, the New York Times reported. The seats in six of those states — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas — are all held by Republicans. The seventh seat, in Michigan, is held by a Democrat.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
Polls also show Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff winning in Georgia and Democrats leading open-seat races in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Minnesota. They also show Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts leading an independent candidate in Nebraska.
Though Democrats lead in many polls, polling data has been wrong in the past. The New York Times reported that supporters of President Donald Trump are less likely to respond to polling. Trump outperformed polling data during the 2016 and 2024 elections, and Joe Biden's victory in 2020 came at a smaller margin than anticipated. But the Times reported that the polling leads are significant enough that Democrats may still take control of the Senate, even if Republican voters are underestimated.
The only U.S. House race in Southeast Pennsylvania that is considered close is the First District race between Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a five-term incumbent, and Democrat Bob Harvie, the former chair of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners. The latest poll, conducted by the New York Times and Sienna University Oct. 16-22, shows Harvie with a 2-point lead, but he's trailed Fitzpatrick for most of the year.
The First District, which includes all of Bucks County and a small section of Montgomery County, is the only U.S. House seat in the region held by a Republican.
None of the three House seats in South Jersey are considered close.
Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win control of the House.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans have controlled the state Senate since 1994. But with Shapiro's strong showing at the top of the ticket, Democrats are hoping this election may change that. Republicans hold a 27-23 majority. Half of the seats are up for grabs, and races to watch include three in the Philly suburbs — Districts 6, 16 and 24.
Control for the state House also is up for grabs, with Democrats holding a 103-100 majority.
In New Jersey, Democrats hold both legislative chambers by wide margins.
